MLB · resolved market
Mariners vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f6340429a2dd1ae13700e4078da3f918c2350d98a700ca3cd8081a2f74e5743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf980…6528backed Athletics | 44c | 30,819$13,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,516.09 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners | 57c | 10,079$5,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360.79 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners | 56c | 7,864$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Mariners | 33c | 5,599$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.13 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mariners | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Mariners | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Athletics | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mariners | 57c | 2,050$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.52 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mariners | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Athletics | 42c | 1,709$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.05 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Mariners | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.67 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 56c | 1,326$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.41 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…e18bbacked Mariners | 59c | 1,276$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…631bbacked Athletics | 43c | 1,265$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 54c | 1,251$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.32 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…a997backed Athletics | 43c | 1,235$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mariners | 22c | 1,207$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.75 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…9c41backed Mariners | 60c | 1,205$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Mariners | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mariners | 32c | 884.88$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.81 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mariners | 55c | 676$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Mariners | 54c | 606.87$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Athletics | 70c | 603.85$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.23 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mariners | 55c | 555.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Mariners | 66c | 538.86$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mariners | 57c | 390.22$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners | 59c | 317.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Athletics | 6c | 285$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Mariners | 57c | 281.65$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mariners | 22c | 277.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.09 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Athletics | 42c | 257$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 57c | 241$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mariners | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mariners | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mariners | 55c | 169$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Athletics | 74c | 147.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 76c | 146.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Athletics | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Athletics | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mariners | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Athletics | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mariners | 23c | 45.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners | 57c | 38.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Athletics | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mariners | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Athletics | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mariners | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mariners | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mariners | 55c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Mariners | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Athletics | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.