Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f7172af92d9dfdd9812361ce64712aaf1071dc4b35bcb821ea2dbf56e29c028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Tundra Esports, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked MOUZ | 58c | 4,382$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.37 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports | 2c | 1,853$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports | 54c | 1,829$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.66 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 53c | 1,601$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 37c | 1,553$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.43 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ | 49c | 1,318$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.81 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 862.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…b26dbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 809.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 45c | 798.6$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.09 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 522.45$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.72 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Tundra Esports | 36c | 470$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 43c | 385.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 315$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 150.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…ea40backed Tundra Esports | 14c | 97.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Tundra Esports | 16c | 91.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 81.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a36…8763backed MOUZ | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037c…509ebacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Tundra Esports | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.