Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8c553419b9f40fa5df53c41eb3eefcfd12a06965adbe5e26f5ae7331b01c4f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 10,826$6,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,729.93 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 10,751$6,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 41c | 10,050$4,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.49 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…ec4bbacked MOUZ | 44c | 9,823$4,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.18 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 40c | 6,672$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.89 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 4,506$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.23 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 4,167$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.08 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 47c | 3,517$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.12 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 3,013$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.46 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed MOUZ | 41c | 2,293$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.99 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked MOUZ | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 1,943$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.39 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 1,759$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.85 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,679$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,538$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.61 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 44c | 1,507$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.65 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,469$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.29 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 52c | 1,453$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.7 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 48c | 1,392$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.13 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,363$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.82 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed MOUZ | 42c | 1,191$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed MOUZ | 65c | 910.77$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…b26dbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 902.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.23 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed MOUZ | 48c | 834.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed MOUZ | 41c | 670$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked MOUZ | 48c | 665.01$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.51 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked MOUZ | 52c | 499.19$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.58 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 39c | 480$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed MOUZ | 40c | 409.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 380.15$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccb…1ab4backed MOUZ | 52c | 351.23$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 341.61$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MOUZ | 41c | 304$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 277.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked MOUZ | 65c | 256.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed MOUZ | 42c | 250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 231.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed MOUZ | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ | 54c | 126.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…accdbacked MOUZ | 42c | 114.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed MOUZ | 45c | 112.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Tundra Esports | 51c | 107.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…122cbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 75.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -10.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…200abacked MOUZ | 41c | 75.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…3239backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 65.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…c6b9backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed MOUZ | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 39.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…8700backed MOUZ | 40c | 33.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…102ebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Tundra Esports | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb759…ed73backed MOUZ | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…fc57backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.