TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,108 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes18c594.42$106 inLost-$105.7165623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes20c180.01$37 inLost-$36.79924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No79c109.96$87 inWon+$23.199410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c104$83 inWon+$21.2930854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes45c87.08$39 inLost-$395228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c72.2$55 inWon+$16.8810556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes19c70$13 inLost-$12.981,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes31c50$16 inLost-$15.543027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes33c50$17 inLost-$16.542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes32c40$13 inLost-$12.86240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No79c38.51$30 inWon+$8.093053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes37c35$13 inLost-$12.954348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c35$12 inLost-$11.92,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c27.75$19 inWon+$8.8837830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No80c26.32$21 inWon+$5.2621959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c25$20 inWon+$5.0614575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.