Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x195819bc1f59bc41bed1bdf8bf25ccb3385438a52253d3d265ff21df395c3e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 984.97$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.49 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 41c | 759.35$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 64c | 703.55$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 55c | 555.36$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.25 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 53c | 420.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.77 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 52c | 405.92$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes | 34c | 290.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 60c | 233.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…df4abacked Yes | 75c | 219.73$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 46c | 140.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 75c | 121.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…c4c2backed No | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 98.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 60c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…f9e3backed Yes | 70c | 75.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 72.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 29c | 71.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed No | 34c | 55.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 23c | 48.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 32c | 47.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 44.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5580backed No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…08f5backed Yes | 44c | 29.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…d1d3backed No | 60c | 27.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 52c | 27.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 65c | 26.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 50c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…954abacked Yes | 69c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 18.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed No | 77c | 14.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.