NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f84425dff47edf1a6a704764f64233a9450bb7340336ad6a1411754cf1230b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Spurs, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Suns | 53c | 10,000$5,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.09 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Spurs | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 51c | 9,050$4,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,434.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Suns | 51c | 8,020$4,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.62 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Spurs | 49c | 7,800$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,822 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Spurs | 47c | 6,831$3,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,210.39 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Suns | 52c | 6,000$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.88 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Spurs | 48c | 5,697$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Suns | 51c | 3,672$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.52 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Suns | 52c | 1,898$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.12 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Spurs | 50c | 859.9$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.95 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Spurs | 47c | 845$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Spurs | 47c | 640$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Spurs | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Spurs | 48c | 473$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.04 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Spurs | 49c | 453.06$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Spurs | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…9aabbacked Suns | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…e7e6backed Spurs | 63c | 219.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 54cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Spurs | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Suns | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…d2f1backed Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- Spurs vs. SunsSuns won
- Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.