College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio State (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8f0aa539283dc7bb5db0363d1255739ddb1722fdda6840337d9d80ee1f1fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stateof Ohio State, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Ohio State | 48c | 108,500$52,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,420 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penn State | 52c | 67,804$35,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,192.38 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Penn State | 52c | 39,255$20,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,407.44 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…a49dbacked Penn State | 53c | 18,146$9,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,617.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Ohio State | 47c | 15,993$7,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,476.33 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Penn State | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State | 48c | 9,170$4,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,785.34 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Penn State | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Ohio State | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Ohio State | 48c | 1,875$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.23 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Ohio State | 48c | 1,749$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Penn State | 51c | 1,700$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.85 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Ohio State | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Ohio State | 49c | 999.98$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.49 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ohio State | 48c | 916$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.32 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Ohio State | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Ohio State | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Ohio State | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Ohio State | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Penn State | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a1…85b7backed Ohio State | 48c | 378.13$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…4883backed Penn State | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Ohio State | 49c | 346.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Ohio State | 49c | 313.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af6…a1a1backed Penn State | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Ohio State | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Ohio State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Penn State | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…bd61backed Ohio State | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…d1d9backed Ohio State | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Ohio State | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Penn State | 52c | 106.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Ohio State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Ohio State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Ohio State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Ohio State | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ohio State | 48c | 97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Penn State | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Ohio State | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Ohio State | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed Penn State | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Penn State | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Ohio State | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Ohio State | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9969backed Penn State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Ohio State | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…7a3bbacked Ohio State | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Penn State | 52c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio State (-18.5)this page
- O/U 43.5Over won
- Penn State vs. Ohio StateOhio State won
- Penn State vs. Ohio State: O/U 44.5Over won
- Penn State vs. Ohio State: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Ohio State (-19.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-20.5)Ohio State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.