Ukraine · resolved market
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f99544f8db2651fdafb79636924b4d9ec73c9b61d77a9e56f467c6b0c932c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,187,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,577,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,187,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4423…5d17backed No | 2c | 410,453$7,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,798.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a4…1b1cbacked No | 2c | 277,831$5,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,735.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed No | 7c | 51,832$3,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,602.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed No | 1c | 45,054$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 1c | 27,988$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 8c | 19,980$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 16,583$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 5c | 14,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…5907backed No | 1c | 12,253$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 9,553$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed No | 7c | 8,739$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 2c | 8,679$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c3…abdcbacked No | 1c | 8,519$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…5a60backed No | 1c | 6,085$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 5,942$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 1c | 4,776$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 5c | 4,256$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…8658backed No | 4c | 4,136$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 1c | 4,006$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…054fbacked No | 3c | 4,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…94c7backed No | 5c | 3,845$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…3f6fbacked No | 7c | 3,765$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…a095backed No | 7c | 3,636$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…58afbacked No | 3c | 3,314$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 3c | 3,258$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked No | 2c | 2,637$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed No | 1c | 2,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed No | 2c | 2,401$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 7c | 2,142$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 3c | 1,850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 1c | 1,632$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed No | 6c | 1,548$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 8c | 1,511$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed No | 3c | 1,354$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…f86cbacked No | 1c | 1,324$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…21a3backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…ae32backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…ab61backed No | 2c | 1,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…2a75backed No | 7c | 1,050$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 1c | 1,031$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 4c | 1,025$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 1c | 948.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…ec45backed No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…dd7cbacked No | 4c | 775$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…d79ebacked No | 2c | 694.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…40a3backed No | 2c | 671.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…918abacked No | 3c | 603.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…e561backed No | 2c | 588.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…c1c6backed No | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…d455backed No | 4c | 560.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked No | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…95f4backed No | 7c | 464.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 4c | 421.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…4c0bbacked No | 6c | 412.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…b8aebacked No | 8c | 402.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed No | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…9cd5backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…994dbacked No | 4c | 290$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa015…545fbacked No | 9c | 281.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a5…1617backed No | 8c | 262.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2826…45dbbacked No | 8c | 262.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 8c | 255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…8ef1backed No | 8c | 253.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +250.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…93c7backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…0661backed No | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…3005backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.