Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbab315821ab3e082e572042536e5c98cf2cb371f5fe2c1773623132ac57b07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 24c | 465.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 245.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 239$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 165.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 12c | 108.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 97.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 90.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 82.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…bd66backed Yes | 41c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 72c | 45.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 65c | 29.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb96e…3ddfbacked No | 79c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed No | 79c | 19.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.