Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1f329f810fa024618306ebbd3b4945180b746735990c11cc79a27a4152a883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 41c | 1,615$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.35 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 1,101$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 846.36$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 66c | 452.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 389.37$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…911dbacked Yes | 47c | 225.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 214$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 194.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…e64bbacked Yes | 46c | 122.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 44c | 110.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 97.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 55c | 91.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 86.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked No | 35c | 66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8343…ba81backed No | 61c | 59.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,186 | 50.8%603 W · 583 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 48c | 55.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…bd66backed Yes | 63c | 52.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 52.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 43c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 36.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 37c | 34.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 52c | 34.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed Yes | 36c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 18?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.