Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc7c1beb159af623f4e76d7efe40fd62d049f1ed74bc3ead1bc5f5fab973ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 1,192$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,096$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 51c | 400$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.52 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 58c | 355$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 22c | 294.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 70c | 219.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 210.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 40c | 183.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 41c | 176$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 137.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…9023backed Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 128.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked No | 27c | 119.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…6f8cbacked Yes | 68c | 117.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 59c | 90.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 90.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 88.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7324…15e9backed No | 40c | 77.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 75c | 75.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 58c | 68.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 58c | 68.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 37c | 67.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 30c | 66.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 61c | 58.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 35c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 76c | 51.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 51.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 73c | 48.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 26c | 42.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 27c | 42.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 29c | 39.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 71c | 39.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 41c | 38.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2096…bc4bbacked Yes | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…4212backed Yes | 36c | 34.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 73c | 33.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 60c | 32.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…cadbbacked No | 42c | 32.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 40c | 31.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 52c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…8dafbacked Yes | 55c | 27.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cd…213dbacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 76c | 25.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…aba8backed Yes | 70c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed Yes | 51c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.