Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ccd436fbdd0900dd3a420f627b08ce4d1ada79f2519a181e32a9ec0cabd0ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 3,358$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 59c | 1,454$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.12 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 39c | 359.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.43 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed Yes | 51c | 298.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 237.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 60c | 214.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 33c | 203.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 187.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…5e0dbacked Yes | 37c | 143.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 138.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 137.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 62c | 136.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 32c | 124.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 40c | 113.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 108.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…6417backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 38c | 89.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 85.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 84.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 73.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 26c | 63.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 38c | 55.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed No | 79c | 50.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 42.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 41.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…b5ccbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…b55fbacked Yes | 31c | 37.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…845dbacked No | 62c | 35.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Yes | 35c | 35.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked Yes | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf774…d2f0backed Yes | 41c | 26.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 25.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 62c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a87abacked No | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…b327backed No | 60c | 23.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 66c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…b06dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 56c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 73c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.