Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102441b41c212963ec8ceadb88c19c34259dbf82bebd1cb409e2067c57000ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,758$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,784$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 3c | 698.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…3181backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 283.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 9c | 264.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 245$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 234.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 24c | 183.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 183$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 166.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 11c | 163.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 144.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 131.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 13c | 124.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 118.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 100.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 89.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 86.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 72.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 61.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 28c | 39.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 35c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 72c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 76c | 22.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…8807backed No | 76c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 78c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.