Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03fdd73b072f76fb4af9e1ad1596ed0617af5b0375d8c1145d7340909b1b78ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 539.4$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 71c | 420.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 298.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 50c | 277.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 41c | 264.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 37c | 262.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 225.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 31c | 221.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 20c | 209.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 206.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 205.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 50c | 179.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 171.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 78c | 169.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 80c | 167.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…c186backed Yes | 14c | 147.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 146.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 123.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 40c | 107.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 29c | 105.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 68c | 100.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 97.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 95.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 17c | 93.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 47c | 90.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 73c | 89.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 88.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 76c | 86.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 86.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 20c | 83.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 78.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…a5fdbacked No | 17c | 76.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 75.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 67.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 18c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 31c | 64.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 79c | 62.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 62.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 18c | 62.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed Yes | 42c | 61.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 56c | 57.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 57.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 18c | 57.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 57.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 72c | 53.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 48c | 53.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 52.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 50.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 44.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 46c | 43.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed Yes | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 38c | 40.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 78c | 36.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 62c | 34.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a7…19a3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 65c | 29.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 28.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 26.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 22.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 22.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked No | 62c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 72c | 18.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 17.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 67c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.