Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdfd584988f2fb0aaef04a67395fea0522377bd95f373517f20f3edfe68ed11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 421.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.62 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 287.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 274$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 266.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.33 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed Yes | 18c | 239.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.65 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 39c | 234.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 42c | 187.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 51c | 145.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 50c | 141.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 48c | 141.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 57c | 104.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…87e3backed No | 62c | 98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 95.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 50c | 91.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 44c | 90.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 44c | 86.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 85.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 59c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cb…c2debacked No | 62c | 73.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 37c | 71.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 71.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c93…8d25backed Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 61.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…0e80backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 59.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 59.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 18c | 56.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…9e77backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…124dbacked Yes | 38c | 54.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…7d23backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 53.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 49.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…e850backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…85c6backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 41c | 48.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 25c | 47.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 33c | 44.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 44.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 42.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 42c | 36.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked Yes | 51c | 35.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 43c | 34.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 50c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…a674backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fc85backed Yes | 43c | 29.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 57c | 24.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 63c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 22.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 19.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 66c | 18.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.