NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102d56fd769dd3eec6a90a4ef2295ddc67b098d47f65281f3666b22e7a907190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 78c | 192.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Over | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…5f52backed Under | 48c | 167.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 52c | 147.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Over | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 91.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Over | 31c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 20c | 57.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 79c | 50.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…56c6backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. LightningLightning won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.