NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a1ae201e77b8d8214feb0bc253877e9eb30b8500ef55942ea156944b0813e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 9,486$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.71 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 44c | 3,029$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.81 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 55c | 1,677$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.23 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 55c | 1,578$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.1 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 44c | 981$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.64 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 885.89$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 534.88$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…75d9backed Over | 5c | 501$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Over | 47c | 426.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc9…0e6ebacked Over | 5c | 415$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6632…6dc2backed Over | 47c | 338$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 51c | 181.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…c092backed Over | 14c | 77.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 58c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 58c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Over | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Under | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Under | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Under | 53c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. LightningLightning won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.