NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c3242ce768cadb07bb06df4f39fe76cc4e9880b09ba9a3e1650d8094a90412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.95 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Maple Leafs | 3c | 1,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lightning | 45c | 1,565$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.9 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning | 45c | 1,438$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.63 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 49c | 1,254$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.68 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,149$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.73 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 680$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 535.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Lightning | 45c | 358.77$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac8…d52bbacked Lightning | 39c | 342.45$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 46c | 293.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 292.23$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 275$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Lightning | 45c | 268.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.31 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning | 43c | 232.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Lightning | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Lightning | 45c | 156.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Lightning | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Lightning | 44c | 137$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Lightning | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 51.1%158 W · 151 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lightning | 41c | 86.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…4423backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 81.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 45c | 70.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Lightning | 45c | 66.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lightning | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Lightning | 43c | 31.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Lightning | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. LightningLightning won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.