NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ec0216c35e5c7b15c3f8580503f52ff5ef9d64a08092a99934152c7dad9a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Maple Leafs, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $306,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $330,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 40,000$12,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,399.95 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Lightning | 69c | 30,786$21,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,653.28 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 21,726$7,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,386.84 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 67c | 17,431$11,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,748.76 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lightning | 67c | 15,142$10,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,045.95 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 12,300$4,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.98 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning | 66c | 11,029$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.8 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs | 32c | 9,401$3,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,027.3 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 9,155$3,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,021.15 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning | 65c | 8,854$5,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,128.39 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Lightning | 66c | 8,756$5,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.05 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lightning | 75c | 8,541$6,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.34 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…5005backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 8,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0453…0977backed Lightning | 66c | 8,000$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Lightning | 69c | 7,695$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385.45 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 7,474$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.35 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Lightning | 62c | 6,209$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.58 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 5,514$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.76 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 4,500$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 66c | 4,447$2,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 4,305$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.63 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Maple Leafs | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…4003backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.95 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lightning | 63c | 3,711$2,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.27 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning | 69c | 3,202$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.72 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 68c | 3,162$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.19 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 3,000$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.98 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Lightning | 62c | 2,969$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.39 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Lightning | 67c | 2,819$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.06 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Lightning | 69c | 2,740$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.95 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lightning | 67c | 2,499$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.69 | 318 | 51.9%165 W · 153 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Lightning | 68c | 2,206$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.77 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Lightning | 69c | 2,167$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.94 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 65c | 2,149$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.56 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 65c | 1,998$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Lightning | 66c | 1,895$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.3 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 1,828$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning | 80c | 1,719$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.91 | 244 | 57.4%140 W · 104 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…203abacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 1,629$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Maple Leafs | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lightning | 66c | 1,578$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.31 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Lightning | 66c | 1,535$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.9 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 1,500$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Lightning | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,500$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.34 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Lightning | 67c | 1,491$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.04 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 67c | 1,400$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,203$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 66c | 1,195$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.75 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,181$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.63 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,176$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6492…c35cbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,100$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 1,098$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.43 | 619 | 50.1%310 W · 309 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Lightning | 69c | 1,025$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.75 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Maple Leafs | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 0.8%2 W · 240 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…e800backed Lightning | 71c | 874.35$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lightning | 69c | 849$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Maple Leafs | 31c | 759.48$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.44 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…b84fbacked Lightning | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 182 | 58.2%106 W · 76 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…b747backed Lightning | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 695.17$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.91 | 529 | 46.9%248 W · 281 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Lightning | 67c | 672.18$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Lightning | 67c | 671.64$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 66c | 665.97$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Lightning | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lightning | 69c | 615$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed Lightning | 66c | 600.34$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…abe1backed Lightning | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 600$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Lightning | 66c | 596.39$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning | 65c | 587.11$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…9c4ebacked Lightning | 64c | 585.8$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…4703backed Maple Leafs | 36c | 585.8$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…5a02backed Lightning | 67c | 581.24$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Lightning | 64c | 576$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.36 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…cdb2backed Lightning | 67c | 574$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…abb0backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 574$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Lightning | 66c | 562.58$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 589 | 47%277 W · 312 L | -23.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Maple Leafs | 41c | 543$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.33 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…35efbacked Maple Leafs | 37c | 534.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning | 64c | 509.32$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.41 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…b0e1backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 505.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…6368backed Lightning | 65c | 503.22$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lightning | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Lightning | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…6fefbacked Lightning | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Lightning | 66c | 497.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.47 | 535 | 46.4%248 W · 287 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…167cbacked Lightning | 67c | 496.73$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…5afdbacked Lightning | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b01abacked Lightning | 67c | 435.79$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…dcc8backed Lightning | 67c | 404.36$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightningthis page
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.