CS2 · resolved market
IEM Dallas: Vitality vs. The MongolZ
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104335bea0c97b5114344d7defd9297dfe830e1dd331057d67f0b67cf4d4af0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, The MongolZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed The MongolZ | 12c | 9,771$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.39 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked The MongolZ | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed The MongolZ | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked The MongolZ | 9c | 1,431$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked The MongolZ | 17c | 1,405$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.04 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked The MongolZ | 47c | 1,115$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed The MongolZ | 18c | 1,076$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed The MongolZ | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed The MongolZ | 13c | 998.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed The MongolZ | 15c | 699.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…8dd0backed The MongolZ | 15c | 546.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed The MongolZ | 12c | 545.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked The MongolZ | 33c | 488.17$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed The MongolZ | 16c | 481.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked The MongolZ | 7c | 385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed The MongolZ | 15c | 330.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…1a04backed The MongolZ | 8c | 327.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked The MongolZ | 11c | 301.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 249 | 43.8%109 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed The MongolZ | 7c | 294.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Vitality | 69c | 276.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked The MongolZ | 13c | 260.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked The MongolZ | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed The MongolZ | 11c | 183.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2c…0ecbbacked The MongolZ | 16c | 160.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Vitality | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked The MongolZ | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed The MongolZ | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…54c8backed The MongolZ | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked The MongolZ | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed The MongolZ | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked The MongolZ | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed The MongolZ | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.