Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1065137ef1319e44e24ec7aec505313b9f21a33e929480346941d1791dc27411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,961$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…0d96backed No | 14c | 686.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 312.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 59c | 289.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 277.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 217.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 113.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 99.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 70c | 97.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 75.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 74.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 54.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 29.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.