Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1074a3e5f029b77c37967c2672ff306b1ca165df2225c983aa3191a011e6f2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 5,796$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,583$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 973.45$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.86 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 958.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 56c | 908.21$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.38 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…6a26backed Yes | 5c | 810.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 51c | 597.06$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.89 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 4c | 572.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 43c | 507.12$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 61c | 408.15$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.42 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 398.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 383.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…ca5fbacked Yes | 64c | 380.65$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 350.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 345.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd4…ab88backed Yes | 11c | 329.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 19c | 311.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes | 54c | 303.68$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 49c | 236.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 26c | 216.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 211.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 38c | 210.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 206.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 26c | 182.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 31c | 175.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 50c | 166.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 34c | 161.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 46c | 159.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 50c | 155.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 150.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 49c | 147.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 48c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 14c | 143.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 54c | 140.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 53c | 139.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…ed24backed No | 44c | 134.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 132.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Yes | 38c | 130.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 51c | 129.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 38c | 128.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 127.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 124.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 60c | 120.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 51c | 114.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 111.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 107.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 102.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 35c | 99.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 50c | 99.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 61c | 97.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 90.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 47c | 83.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 70c | 83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…7df7backed Yes | 53c | 79.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 40c | 78.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 49c | 75.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 44c | 74.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 43c | 70.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 44c | 70.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 28c | 69.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 53c | 69.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 31c | 66.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 45c | 66.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 30c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 40c | 63.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 40c | 53.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 50.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 64c | 49.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 49.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 48.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 45c | 45.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f5…cc92backed Yes | 50c | 44.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 62c | 44.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb05c…f02fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 54c | 41.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 57c | 40.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes | 33c | 38.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…e952backed Yes | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 47c | 37.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 56c | 36.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed Yes | 57c | 35.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 32-33°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.