Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d494f08d40f7b5be422ef80db19352168e56e8a9ea6f4780884486ce6568c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 0c | 3,864$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…070cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,742$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…749ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,661$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 1c | 2,230$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…776bbacked No | 1c | 1,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…4f22backed No | 65c | 1,384$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…219abacked No | 65c | 1,362$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2085…b647backed No | 65c | 1,358$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…ceadbacked No | 65c | 1,277$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 719.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 51c | 615.12$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 40c | 611.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.01 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 590.72$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 55c | 553.21$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 540.79$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 73c | 497.11$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.14 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 490.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 450$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.67 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 444.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…ca5fbacked Yes | 75c | 441.82$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 6c | 429.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 44c | 342.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 24c | 322.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.55 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 292.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 239.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 35c | 231.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 230$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 210.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 33c | 192.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 187.81$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 55c | 182.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 78c | 182.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 181.58$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 31c | 180.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.94 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 173.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 71c | 166.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 165.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 157.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 45c | 156.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 42c | 154.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 36c | 145.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 143.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 132.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 120.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…75b4backed Yes | 26c | 119.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 75c | 114.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 25c | 113.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 31c | 107.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 47c | 104.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 99.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 66c | 97.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 75c | 96.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 70c | 95.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 59c | 94.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 34c | 90.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 35c | 88.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 60c | 86.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 85.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 61c | 82.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 51c | 79.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 45c | 77.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 38c | 77.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 77.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 76.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 60c | 72.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 29c | 68.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 37c | 66.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 47c | 63.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 24c | 63.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 76c | 61.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 29c | 59.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 51c | 58.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 57.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 56.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 61c | 56.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 56.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…376bbacked No | 74c | 54.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 26c | 49.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed Yes | 32c | 48.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 74c | 48.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 64c | 48.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 29c | 48.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 47.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 22c | 46.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 71c | 44.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 32c | 44.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…364bbacked Yes | 66c | 43.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 42.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 32-33°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.