Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108b766b4d79db16270f17c8ed98705107e1e5a3c6c1c59fda67961a760f83f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 3,458$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.69 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 22c | 3,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 26c | 2,247$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.87 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 16c | 1,578$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.36 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 4c | 1,266$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 77c | 1,126$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.97 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9c23backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 21c | 826.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 72c | 801.02$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.35 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 21c | 648$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 4c | 284.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 67c | 239$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 31c | 220$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 196.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 39c | 192.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 28c | 168.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 23c | 163.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 41c | 160.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 72c | 139.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 72c | 138.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 170 | 62.9%107 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 26c | 122.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 114$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 61c | 108.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 42c | 97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…2eefbacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 29c | 77.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 36c | 75.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 26c | 64.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 23c | 63.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…3dc7backed Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae56…8c22backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…c5c2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 208 | 34.6%72 W · 136 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajunsthis page
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5)Arkansas State Red Wolves won
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-8.5)Arkansas State Red Wolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.