NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G2: Will SGA score 34+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d229206afb16ecc45bbe2d85c920108a46eaace23040d3bfc60c7be700765f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 53c | 28,868$15,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,549.68 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 47c | 27,995$13,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,134.13 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,635$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.98 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…2966backed No | 49c | 1,127$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 48c | 1,056$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.45 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 48c | 999.98$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.99 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 51c | 951.03$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed No | 46c | 846.41$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked No | 48c | 833.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed No | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 52c | 514.29$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Yes | 55c | 500$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 54c | 370.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Yes | 53c | 232.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 286 | 51.4%147 W · 139 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 54c | 161$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 46c | 150.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 45c | 122.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 55c | 100.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…5d9abacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 50c | 99.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes | 53c | 95.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…ceb0backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 55c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.