TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cary: Edward Winter vs William Manning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Edward Winterof Edward Winter, William Manning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed William Manning3c12,656$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.078,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked William Manning33c5,061$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.0411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Edward Winter66c5,020$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.16,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Edward Winter65c1,426$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.134,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed William Manning5c890.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.164,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed William Manning14c828$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9236621.6%79 W · 287 L+1.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed William Manning26c742.99$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4630530.8%94 W · 211 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed William Manning35c600$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2107,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed William Manning21c558.78$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.928,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Edward Winter80c506$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.464,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Edward Winter65c458.46$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.5162457.7%360 W · 264 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Edward Winter69c434.13$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.832,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked William Manning34c425.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.433,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked William Manning26c294$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.934,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed William Manning20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…b85dbacked William Manning30c242.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.862157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked William Manning19c236.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed William Manning17c199.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.312,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked William Manning20c175$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Edward Winter70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8616755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed William Manning19c130.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Edward Winter79c112$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.321,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Edward Winter72c111.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.289,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Edward Winter70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked William Manning28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked William Manning32c90.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7831657%180 W · 136 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed William Manning15c83.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.836,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…ef05backed William Manning37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3037262.9%234 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Edward Winter78c76.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.762,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Edward Winter66c58.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0655748.8%272 W · 285 L+23.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62f7…0e8cbacked Edward Winter64c58.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.091070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked William Manning25c55.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed William Manning30c51.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5539035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed William Manning29c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.773951.7%382 W · 357 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed William Manning31c48.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.043,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed William Manning36c46.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.822,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd5…805abacked Edward Winter64c46.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.824868.8%33 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed William Manning30c40.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked William Manning34c39.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422937.9%11 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Edward Winter71c39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.311,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked William Manning33c36.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.223942.7%102 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed William Manning35c35.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked William Manning36c32.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.872,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Edward Winter65c30.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5711353.1%60 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Edward Winter69c25.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0887060.2%524 W · 346 L+28.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd1…0913backed Edward Winter64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a98…639dbacked Edward Winter68c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.656250%31 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Edward Winter71c15.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.572,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c9…234dbacked Edward Winter71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.358658.1%50 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.