Tennis · resolved market
Cary: Edward Winter vs William Manning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d2aa0e0bbf537b47f9b886bc908583cfa95b5f351a9e6565d5ceda44339c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Edward Winterof Edward Winter, William Manning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed William Manning | 3c | 12,656$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.07 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked William Manning | 33c | 5,061$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Edward Winter | 66c | 5,020$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.1 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Edward Winter | 65c | 1,426$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.13 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed William Manning | 5c | 890.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed William Manning | 14c | 828$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 366 | 21.6%79 W · 287 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed William Manning | 26c | 742.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed William Manning | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed William Manning | 21c | 558.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Edward Winter | 80c | 506$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Edward Winter | 65c | 458.46$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Edward Winter | 69c | 434.13$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked William Manning | 34c | 425.47$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked William Manning | 26c | 294$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed William Manning | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked William Manning | 30c | 242.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked William Manning | 19c | 236.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed William Manning | 17c | 199.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked William Manning | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Edward Winter | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed William Manning | 19c | 130.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Edward Winter | 79c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Edward Winter | 72c | 111.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Edward Winter | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked William Manning | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked William Manning | 32c | 90.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed William Manning | 15c | 83.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed William Manning | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Edward Winter | 78c | 76.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Edward Winter | 66c | 58.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…0e8cbacked Edward Winter | 64c | 58.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked William Manning | 25c | 55.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed William Manning | 30c | 51.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed William Manning | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed William Manning | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed William Manning | 36c | 46.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd5…805abacked Edward Winter | 64c | 46.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed William Manning | 30c | 40.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked William Manning | 34c | 39.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Edward Winter | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked William Manning | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed William Manning | 35c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked William Manning | 36c | 32.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Edward Winter | 65c | 30.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Edward Winter | 69c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…0913backed Edward Winter | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Edward Winter | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Edward Winter | 71c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…234dbacked Edward Winter | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cary: Edward Winter vs William Manningthis page
- Winter vs. Manning: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.