Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10de37938e579177725c5df1dcf4f1d935f1deba76dd10118d66ce4ac5652d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 931.5$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 56c | 916.46$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.12 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 902.15$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 51c | 828.45$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.3 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a3…8e60backed Yes | 37c | 622.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 618.73$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 589.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 461.84$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 46c | 428.37$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 412.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 404.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 392.83$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 336.17$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 71c | 310.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 47c | 307.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 304.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 15c | 298.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 273.23$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 39c | 270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 41c | 269.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 264.25$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…caecbacked Yes | 69c | 264.04$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 48c | 252.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 47c | 241.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 234.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 233.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 33c | 225.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 220.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 47c | 211.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…eccbbacked Yes | 49c | 190.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 187.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 55c | 187$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 70c | 186.74$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 185.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 181.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 160.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 44c | 156$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 154.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 150.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 139.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 135.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 131.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 131.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 128.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 35c | 127.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 126.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 125.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…3741backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 124.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 42c | 123.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 119.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 51c | 117.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 116$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 107.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 105.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 104.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 100.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 60c | 99.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 98.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 96.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 37c | 95.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 91.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 87.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 86.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed Yes | 47c | 83.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 83.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 77.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 77.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 44c | 74.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 69.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…b528backed No | 66c | 69.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 44c | 68.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 38c | 66.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 43c | 66.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 40c | 65.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 65.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 65.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 78c | 64.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 64.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 63.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 61.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 70c | 61.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 48c | 60.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…4fd6backed Yes | 47c | 60.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 59.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 47c | 58.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 35c | 56.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 50c | 56.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.