Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e05f73de0a4b225796a3ca93bec73bc1a5c5bbdd20dcc9fbca647421f00b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 934.2$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 17c | 774.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.97 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 731.93$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 660.41$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.28 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 43c | 617.67$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 589.3$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 511.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 511.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 10c | 499.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 455.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 451.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 432.01$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 428.75$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 56c | 425.07$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 45c | 419.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.46 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 38c | 360.83$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 42c | 340.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 336.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 35c | 329.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 311.29$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.23 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 73c | 265.06$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 262.71$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 64c | 260.97$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 255.01$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 218.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 30c | 216$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 206.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 36c | 199.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 79c | 188.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 188.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 41c | 183.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 63c | 180.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 177.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 173.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 79c | 171.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 44c | 164.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 63c | 163.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 160.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 154.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 152.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 151.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 147.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 55c | 144.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 142.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 140.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 127.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 31c | 125.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 116.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 115.28$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 115$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed No | 73c | 114.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 113.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 26c | 112.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 39c | 110.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 13c | 109.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 58c | 109.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 104.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 36c | 97.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 97.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 79c | 94.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 87.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 31c | 87.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 36c | 85.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 29c | 85.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed No | 21c | 80.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 48c | 80.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 80.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 79.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 79.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 78.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 77.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 33c | 76.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 44c | 76.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 46c | 73.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 37c | 72.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 72.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 40c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 68.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 67.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 61c | 63.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 24c | 61.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 50c | 60.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 59.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 48c | 57.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 61c | 55.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 55.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 55.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 51c | 55.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 23c | 53.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 52.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 51.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.