Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f75be7311a087a5449e11cacc199a8b731e6e9e963ac2eb94795b28656d29c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,543 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,209$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,820$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 1,838$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,767$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 3c | 679.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 10c | 665.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 567.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 553.64$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 8c | 521.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 465$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 416.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 9c | 362.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…6915backed Yes | 7c | 350$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 11c | 325.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 320.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 13c | 296$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 18c | 275.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 245.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 234.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 232.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 14c | 214.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 206$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 172.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 167.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 12c | 147.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 9c | 128.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 121.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 24c | 96.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 88.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 16c | 79.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 79.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed No | 79c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 78c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 17.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 78c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.