Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7f856378ed8075e5089b41d08ad30fd9e750fbc4cd8f626c2e994a5aa8e0a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 33c | 2,668$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.41 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 78c | 2,133$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.94 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 37c | 705.52$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 73c | 700.42$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.54 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 681.29$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 639.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 23c | 617.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed No | 18c | 553.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 78c | 528.92$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 62c | 477.44$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 3c | 469.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 61c | 465$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 54c | 431.06$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 44c | 414.64$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.72 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 75c | 404.46$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 397.66$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…d118backed No | 28c | 376.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 360.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…6915backed Yes | 78c | 349.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 80c | 325$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 47c | 320.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 310.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 13c | 303.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 66c | 288.57$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 80c | 284.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 71c | 283.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 282.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 70c | 275.25$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 47c | 266.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.95 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 55c | 251.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…9e26backed No | 14c | 249.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 54c | 240.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8596backed Yes | 68c | 231.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 51c | 224.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 25c | 224.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked No | 24c | 213.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 54c | 207.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 197.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 58c | 189$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 66c | 168$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 75c | 148.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 27c | 142.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…bdc4backed Yes | 80c | 137.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 65c | 131.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 73c | 129.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed No | 38c | 126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 123.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 45c | 123.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 116.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 21c | 116.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefc…3a9dbacked No | 19c | 113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 73c | 108.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…033fbacked No | 19c | 106.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…69b3backed No | 10c | 105.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 47c | 100.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 67c | 100.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…b271backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked No | 34c | 98.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 98.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 16c | 98.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…f497backed Yes | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 80c | 94.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 79c | 93.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 77c | 88.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 72c | 83.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 69c | 83.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…764abacked No | 28c | 81.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 44c | 78.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 63c | 78.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed Yes | 46c | 75.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 66c | 75.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…83e3backed No | 21c | 73.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 61c | 72.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…4566backed Yes | 42c | 70.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 49c | 68.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked Yes | 47c | 62.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 62.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…83cabacked Yes | 45c | 61.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 75c | 61.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 57c | 59.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…439bbacked Yes | 51c | 59.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.