Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10fcc683e161c53bcea786b340408d0bf5b1b582fb706ebb0f26ccf008cc13f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bd9…aa8fbacked Yes | 9c | 759.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 732.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 22c | 727.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 616.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 608.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 15c | 528.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 68c | 519.2$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 20c | 456.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 12c | 445.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 9c | 365.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 11c | 331.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 23c | 329.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 257.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 247.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 77c | 229.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 13c | 218.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 204.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 14c | 204.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 202.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 189.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 167.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 34c | 164.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 148.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 7c | 146.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 141.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 132.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…d318backed Yes | 36c | 129.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 22c | 124.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 10c | 120.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 10c | 114.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 28c | 114.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 52c | 113.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 111.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 12c | 111.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 39c | 94.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 12c | 94.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 39c | 93.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 77c | 84.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed Yes | 30c | 83.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 82.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed No | 58c | 76.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 14c | 73.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed No | 65c | 71.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 15c | 70.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 61c | 68.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7b76backed Yes | 18c | 61.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 21c | 59.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 70c | 57.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 52.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked Yes | 38c | 49.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 48.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 39.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 74c | 34.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 33.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 70c | 31.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 37c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…b510backed Yes | 49c | 29.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 80c | 29.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 63c | 22.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 72c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 77c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 74c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.