TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No68c1,174$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.371,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes34c939.21$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.972,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes6c893.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0446733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c677.09$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c496.78$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0321…19fabacked Yes38c356.63$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.691250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c305.95$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes5c242.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes37c240.38$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes24c224.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.851,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes45c211.63$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.943748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292a…5d78backed No76c200.9$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.319333.3%31 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c185.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.251,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No72c147.14$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c137.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed Yes52c126.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7533154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c123.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.772,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes57c122.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.613339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c122.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c114.92$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2810…d40fbacked No80c110.77$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.674748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c109.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.239,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c109.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.457,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes26c105.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7925725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c105.57$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…54c9backed Yes13c102.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.72138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes32c94.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.916944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…621ebacked No47c87.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.782462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c85.89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7630859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes45c73.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9439535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes38c71.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.929640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c69.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.023,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…259ebacked Yes49c66.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c63.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x113b…3048backed No69c62.96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes18c62.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.244,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes34c61.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No63c61.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5217949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed No63c60.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1825058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes47c58.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.071030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes26c55.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.161,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e66…52f5backed Yes25c54.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.796720.9%14 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes41c53.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.963013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No78c53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5433567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes37c52.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4951321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27a1…adc6backed Yes40c52.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.051566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes46c51.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes28c50.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed No58c49.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.698143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes38c47.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3916634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No50c46.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No69c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6819152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9814158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes44c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1644553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes40c39.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1313340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c39.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes38c38.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7211644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b1…9ebcbacked Yes33c36.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No66c36.12$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2253547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331f…d739backed No63c34.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3023…465cbacked Yes32c33.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes48c33.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.151,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5073…16a7backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.360236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes70c29.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3527463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes36c27.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.017021.4%15 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c27.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.792,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes42c27.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.652330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c5e…aa95backed No71c27.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.121450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…0b22backed Yes39c27.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d78…e218backed Yes44c27.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.863112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No64c27.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.814355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No59c26.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8920942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No77c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.977676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes69c25.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.576854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No69c21.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7827560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…a265backed No69c21.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfda8…e905backed No68c20.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43661.1%22 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.28366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c18.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No64c18.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3200…6c7ebacked No79c13.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.911060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.