Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1103d1dc48b5521dbd5a3d48e2c46eb0a544712d6e3563d149f215b5fd71c2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,315 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 400$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 382.62$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 339.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.79 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 47c | 324.24$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 69c | 234.35$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 10c | 227.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 40c | 205.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 60c | 129.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 22c | 123.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 109.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 106.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 106.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a151backed Yes | 41c | 99.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 95.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 47c | 73.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…e7bcbacked Yes | 37c | 71.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 68.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 61.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 38c | 60.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 58.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 31c | 57.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 24c | 56.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 56.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 40c | 49.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 46.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 65c | 46.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 33c | 45.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 41c | 43.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 32c | 36.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 37c | 35.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 23.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaa…ce40backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 20.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…735cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.