Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1107cb45ef1435b1fa8abf1a8ed0ea79236546911b9812b5f418c3f52368e8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 2,116$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…d26ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,606$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,222$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.72 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed No | 1c | 1,004$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 22c | 999.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.77 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 41c | 787.62$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 782.5$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 73c | 702.77$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 522.39$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.08 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 21c | 476$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.04 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 70c | 462.16$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 49c | 410.2$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 67c | 299.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked Yes | 22c | 270.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.7 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 72c | 237.22$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 233.62$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 22c | 217.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 217.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 51c | 209.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Yes | 51c | 202.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 16c | 169.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 17c | 169.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 151.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 20c | 127.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 119.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 74c | 115.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 19c | 115.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked No | 40c | 104.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 97.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 21c | 94.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 94.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Yes | 55c | 77.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 73.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked No | 15c | 69.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 64.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 48c | 61.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 60.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked No | 46c | 56.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Yes | 22c | 49.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 48.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c24…921dbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed Yes | 56c | 32.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed No | 43c | 29.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 50c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…1fb8backed Yes | 77c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-13?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-13?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.