Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38d61da759d2108c14273796e2e56021796270898d69fda3de5b1f604dc11296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,030 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 44c | 4,591$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Yes | 22c | 2,320$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200d…f117backed Yes | 36c | 2,197$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 1,624$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 48c | 1,414$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.63 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 50c | 1,057$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.36 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed No | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 44c | 564.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.95 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 15c | 448.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 421.68$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 45c | 378.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.93 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 56c | 366.56$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.11 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 22c | 318.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked No | 45c | 277.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 269.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 55c | 185.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…ca52backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…a1d5backed Yes | 43c | 162.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 160.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Yes | 22c | 159.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 55c | 152.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 151.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 31c | 130.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 80c | 125.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 56c | 108.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 55c | 76.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…66a2backed Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 17c | 61.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…db9dbacked No | 53c | 56.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 58c | 55.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 55c | 46.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 58c | 42.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…d7f4backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…5b98backed Yes | 56c | 35.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 57c | 32.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 38c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 45c | 30.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 55c | 30.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Yes | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 56c | 26.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 56c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed No | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-03-13?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-03-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.