Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Páfos FC vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11472c028194354364a3f09af5ea315654994f0c52e6c2fb38e5893051338cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 2,074$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.5 | 662 | 50.6%335 W · 327 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 1,778$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.02 | 695 | 48.9%340 W · 355 L | +19.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 1,239$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6241backed Yes | 25c | 980$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 666$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 665.43$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 626.75$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 24c | 564.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 25c | 405$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 75c | 376.56$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 279.61$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Yes | 21c | 248.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 194.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 155.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Yes | 14c | 127$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 78c | 121.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…e10cbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 103.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 75c | 98.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 75c | 75.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 14c | 75.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 76c | 66.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 25c | 59.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 44 | 79.5%35 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Páfos FC vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will Páfos FC win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.