Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc501d7e27ee23d3e9a0dab35e96d609fb5346aefefeccb1480c18341ee3e085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 2,381$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 1,994$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 79c | 1,820$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.81 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 17c | 1,473$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.13 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 1,181$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…302ebacked Yes | 4c | 624.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…16b9backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 458.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 16c | 375.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…1b5bbacked Yes | 6c | 358.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 345.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 16c | 325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…fc6cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 19c | 211.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 20c | 193.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 22c | 192.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 123.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…c49fbacked Yes | 16c | 110.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 25c | 86.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…31cebacked Yes | 21c | 82.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 20c | 70.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…e10cbacked Yes | 21c | 63.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 21c | 63.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 78c | 61.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 78c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked No | 75c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will Páfos FC vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?No won
- Will Páfos FC win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.