Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114f86856de82e7352c476375a408f7934aa7da84de735a8eb73c8761731efb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 974.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 526.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 328.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 21c | 309.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 244.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 6c | 221.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 219.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 217$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 23c | 197.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 189.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 186.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 177.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 9c | 152.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 133.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 10c | 127$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 67c | 100.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 15c | 98.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.63 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 86.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 23c | 85.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 85.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 80.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 28c | 77.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 63.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 25c | 62.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 32c | 61.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…bab7backed Yes | 19c | 57.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 76c | 46.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…4432backed No | 26c | 44.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 73c | 41.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 77c | 24.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…6788backed Yes | 75c | 24.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…fcd7backed Yes | 78c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.