Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1896389b420d0164cdb28d873a6846a9e12077181d25673037c25d477f9fbbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 2,072$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 40c | 503.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 438$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 420.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 385.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 37c | 299.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 296.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 259$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 187.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 186.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 31c | 142.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 39c | 139$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 120.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 105.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 97.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 32c | 97.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 74c | 81.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 41c | 72.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 38c | 62.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 56.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 51.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 75c | 48.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 24c | 42.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 40.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 36.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 33.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…02bbbacked Yes | 38c | 29.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 75c | 24.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 76c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 75c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.