Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x115db516fd340212e1ae0835a1433c9bdd1ed8ba9d7de535dd00a46c98545095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 3c | 78,500$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 14c | 812.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…65d8backed No | 80c | 415.79$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 407.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 354.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 289.83$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 256.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 35c | 247.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.04 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 25c | 245.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 55c | 181.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 180.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 34c | 178.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 138.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 76c | 131.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 62c | 119.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 49c | 115.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 103.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 15c | 96.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 96.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 88.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 60c | 86.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 85.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 83.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 83.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 39c | 77.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 71.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 65.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 23c | 61.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 62c | 56.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 56.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 54.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 67c | 51.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 51.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 50.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 50.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 25c | 48.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 24c | 45.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 45.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 39.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 37c | 32.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 63c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 65c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 66c | 18.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.