Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08394b160adee9b1eef59fc3de3607bae7f7823493b768c3306fc2ebe4a2a30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…65d8backed Yes | 66c | 824.38$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 368.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 63c | 247.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 211.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 41c | 183.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 142.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 126.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 107.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 63c | 103.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 100.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 57c | 84.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 81.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 40c | 79.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 65.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 64.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 42c | 63.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 41c | 61.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 49c | 59.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 57.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 56.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 55.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 59c | 52.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 44c | 51.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 49.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 49.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 41c | 49.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 52c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 66c | 45.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 41.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 65c | 39.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 37.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 69c | 36.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 29c | 34.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 31.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 40c | 30.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 40c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 47c | 24.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 54c | 23.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…1132backed Yes | 63c | 23.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 47c | 21.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 55c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…a370backed Yes | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b97…9978backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…beffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.