Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x115f7e9c906ab10e2ae548476798f652dcad2d18a69c9adef246adb1bddeeb9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wellington Phoenix FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Wellington Phoenix FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 61c | 2,304$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.07 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 40c | 1,689$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Melbourne Victory FC | 31c | 692.35$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.68 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Melbourne Victory FC | 36c | 556.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 524.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 20c | 431.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 63c | 332$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Melbourne Victory FC | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…d6aabacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…d8e5backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd810…2eb8backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 57c | 185$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Melbourne Victory FC | 35c | 183$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Melbourne Victory FC | 36c | 137.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 120.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 78.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 57c | 65.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 64.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Melbourne Victory FC | 19c | 62.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Melbourne Victory FC | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Melbourne Victory FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 69c | 46.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…f879backed Melbourne Victory FC | 43c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…c2e4backed Melbourne Victory FC | 43c | 29.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Wellington Phoenix FC | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Wellington Phoenix FC | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.