Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06373b01a7561d8702de326f036c8538c6b47c13fba866197ff220f100c31ffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 6,047$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.3 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,854$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.17 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…c372backed Over | 56c | 1,199$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 917.55$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.08 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 36c | 816.86$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.07 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 78c | 642.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 6c | 502.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +6.4wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 56c | 462.5$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 416.95$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.03 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 48c | 412.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 406.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 36c | 386.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.21 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 31c | 319.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 31c | 305$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…4095backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 75c | 267.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ca23backed Over | 49c | 226.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…3535backed Over | 51c | 200.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…5a4fbacked Over | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 198$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 17c | 196.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 49c | 183.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 51c | 180.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 47c | 165$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 49c | 159.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 77c | 139.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 69c | 138.58$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +170%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 32c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 69c | 71.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Over | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 18c | 69.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 46c | 69.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 60c | 56.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Over | 56c | 51.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 52c | 48.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Over | 75c | 37.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 44c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Under | 47c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.