Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x726d6699954f40ed18eac0569936d40f413460a8e80076e45773cc98a97eb365

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1e77…8c33backed Under	54c	29,644$16,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,572.83	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	45c	9,411$4,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,236.84	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	40c	4,189$1,687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,687.19	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over	27c	1,750$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.67	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-5.5wins	-0.22per pick	34cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	46c	1,481$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.04	305	36.1%110 W · 195 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	37c	1,200$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	86	25.6%22 W · 64 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	45c	1,200$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under	54c	921.16$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.35	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over	46c	736.38$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.4	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	46c	732.73$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.83	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over	46c	732.73$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.83	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	46c	727.09$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.11	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over	46c	720.33$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.11	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over	46c	720.33$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.11	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over	46c	542.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.7	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Over	46c	542.84$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.7	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over	46c	502.93$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.1	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under	65c	461.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.54	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under	59c	338.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.37	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e90…be2bbacked Under	73c	319.64$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.8	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+40%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	11c	304.97$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over	46c	293.07$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.52	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	26c	262.15$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.25	247	32.4%80 W · 167 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over	47c	256.38$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.6	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	47c	256.38$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.6	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	60cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	58cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Over	47c	252.73$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.03	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over	47c	220$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.4	73	65.8%48 W · 25 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over	46c	217.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over	46c	217.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over	46c	217.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over	46c	217.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over	46c	217.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Over	46c	216.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.7	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Over	47c	214.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over	46c	213.24$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.09	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22ed…3535backed Over	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cee…5a4fbacked Over	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6859…f7c2backed Over	47c	170.21$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	31c	160.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under	54c	157.46$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.43	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	54c	152.98$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.37	478	50.8%243 W · 235 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over	47c	151.62$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.81	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.23per pick	54cpaid	+39%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Over	46c	124.25$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.13per pick	60cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b52…22cbbacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Over	46c	108.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.7	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Over	46c	107.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over	41c	98.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	75c	95.16$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.45	349	37.8%132 W · 217 L	-13.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	32c	93.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over	46c	91.37$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Over	46c	89.15$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.01	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	36c	86.45$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.13	198	49%97 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Over	37c	83$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.71	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed Over	46c	75.24$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under	56c	65.18$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	149	55.7%83 W · 66 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under	54c	62.36$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.69	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…7685backed Over	46c	61.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.33per pick	53cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Under	63c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.2	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over	37c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over	35c	56.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	77	39%30 W · 47 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Over	46c	54.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	59cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.27per pick	67cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-28%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba2…f46bbacked Over	47c	53.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	60cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over	36c	44.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.09	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	57c	43.84$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	132	43.2%57 W · 75 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	34c	41.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	74	25.7%19 W · 55 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over	44c	39.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…0cb2backed Over	46c	34.41$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Over	47c	31.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa64e…5d27backed Under	80c	31.5$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	46c	30.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+7.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Over	41c	25.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5this page
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event