Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11627ecf35947e742bed38d00a53a7a62f70d245e8256c810a75d9ee60412983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 8,834$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900.21 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 22c | 4,999$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.58 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 3,075$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.19 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 21c | 812$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.48 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 71c | 698.55$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 42c | 594$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.42 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Under | 78c | 411$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 79c | 388$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.52 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 78c | 256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 96.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 74c | 81.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 44c | 50.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 80c | 36.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 66cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 78c | 34.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 69c | 23.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 78c | 19.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.