MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1174f6a86caf1ec12a8a2f5b568f86d49252a8855a78dfc2d7474a6192b73b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20da…e704backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 2,569$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.29 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,202$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.24 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,002$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.9 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 830.97$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.29 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 368.77$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 291.67$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 210.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 112.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 63.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 59.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.