Champions League · resolved market
Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Bologna?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11809fce089f5653ab20fe59c7c7187dbb7183fdca910e0c534f406cc4938f84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 77c | 807.65$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.76 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d8…3083backed Yes | 20c | 568.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 23c | 565.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 26c | 388.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 77c | 388.46$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 6c | 305.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 17c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 76c | 184.78$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…726cbacked Yes | 24c | 151.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 78c | 149.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed No | 79c | 127.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…086bbacked Yes | 23c | 100.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…d46dbacked No | 79c | 94.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 74c | 79.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a1febacked Yes | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…a12ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 75c | 72.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…532fbacked Yes | 24c | 67.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 76c | 45.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…eaf6backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3b…22bdbacked Yes | 28c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Bologna?this page
- Will Bologna beat Shakhtar Donetsk?No won
- Will Bologna vs. Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.