Champions League · resolved market
Will Bologna beat Shakhtar Donetsk?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63620fc353e45d023711c069e9ef48c3afb7269dda42649078c14f7e23ce4230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2807…97febacked No | 60c | 984.91$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 47c | 494.23$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed No | 51c | 392.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.39 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 42c | 333.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 49c | 299.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 49c | 292.68$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…6423backed Yes | 51c | 196.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 70c | 176.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 50c | 142.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 49c | 130.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 47c | 99.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked No | 52c | 66.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…9a3cbacked Yes | 41c | 56.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 48c | 56.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 56.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…afafbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 49c | 48.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 49c | 47.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…45d3backed Yes | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed Yes | 52c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna beat Shakhtar Donetsk?this page
- Will Bologna vs. Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Bologna?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.