College Football · resolved market
Duke vs. Virginia: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118474fe6879103c8f5fb8ec3c7dbcf04bd9146c2926da22085575ae07ce9c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, Virginia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia | 44c | 217.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…3a36backed Duke | 42c | 186$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…4374backed Duke | 40c | 183$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa931…4366backed Duke | 42c | 182$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…331dbacked Duke | 42c | 181$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…30b8backed Virginia | 58c | 177$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…d492backed Duke | 41c | 176$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…7a8dbacked Duke | 39c | 175$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…3157backed Virginia | 58c | 174$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Duke | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…ff96backed Duke | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…a4d1backed Duke | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40c…09afbacked Virginia | 60c | 169$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…4d55backed Duke | 40c | 168$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…7f4dbacked Duke | 42c | 167$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…58d6backed Duke | 42c | 167$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…2010backed Virginia | 58c | 167$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…6198backed Virginia | 60c | 163$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ca1fbacked Virginia | 58c | 162$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…80b1backed Virginia | 61c | 161$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…8837backed Virginia | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…e745backed Virginia | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…1dc2backed Virginia | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9b…d3b6backed Virginia | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…2678backed Duke | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…440cbacked Virginia | 60c | 159$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…ea6bbacked Duke | 42c | 158$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…8a39backed Duke | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Duke | 65c | 153.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d96…30e1backed Virginia | 58c | 152$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…0158backed Duke | 39c | 147$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…b5e4backed Virginia | 61c | 146$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…9da1backed Virginia | 58c | 144$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…3817backed Virginia | 61c | 139$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Virginia | 41c | 82.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Virginia | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke vs. Virginia: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Duke vs. VirginiaDuke won
- Duke vs. Virginia: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Duke won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Duke won
- Spread: Virginia (-4.5)Duke won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.