College Football · resolved market
Spread: Virginia (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4036ada6bface1e0fd0295e745c7764388848a382c8b31fda7fb6438ff1597fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Virginia, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Duke | 53c | 18,927$10,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,812.81 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia | 50c | 9,611$4,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,804.62 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…1795backed Duke | 50c | 8,266$4,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,133 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virginia | 43c | 5,075$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.32 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Virginia | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Duke | 72c | 4,130$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Virginia | 32c | 3,314$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Virginia | 50c | 2,523$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Virginia | 41c | 2,493$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.01 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Virginia | 24c | 1,259$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.03 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Duke | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.05 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Virginia | 52c | 700.74$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.36 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Virginia | 43c | 560$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…f4c7backed Virginia | 50c | 508.78$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Virginia | 47c | 471$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.3 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia | 50c | 307.46$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34df…2388backed Virginia | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Virginia | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Duke | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9866…4712backed Duke | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Virginia | 44c | 58.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Virginia | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Duke | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Duke | 51c | 40.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Duke | 51c | 40.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Virginia | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Virginia | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Duke | 57c | 37.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Virginia | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Duke | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…53cdbacked Virginia | 39c | 30.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f73…d330backed Duke | 49c | 26.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Duke | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Virginia | 46c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Virginia | 46c | 22.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)this page
- Duke vs. VirginiaDuke won
- Duke vs. Virginia: 1H MoneylineDuke won
- Duke vs. Virginia: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: Virginia (-3.5)Duke won
- Spread: Virginia (-4.5)Duke won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.